[外電] Skubal 交易談判內幕：為什麼老虎隊選擇
ESPN原文：Inside Skubal trade negotiations: Why Tigers chose Dodgers
By Jeff Passan
非常長的文章 原文全文附在最後 以下由ChatGPT 翻譯
Skubal 交易談判內幕：為什麼老虎隊選擇道奇隊
週六下午，電話開始打了出去，比原本預期的時間還早。底特律老虎隊準備交易掉全世界最好的投手，而他們需要還留在這場夏季最大棒球競標中的球隊，提出「最後且最佳報價」。
對於這些有意爭取者究竟願意拿出什麼來換取 29 歲左投手 Tarik Skubal，底特律並不清楚。Skubal 已經連續兩年拿下美聯賽揚獎。不過在過去 24 小時裡，老虎隊已經全面了解市場，並得到一個感覺：有不只一支球隊願意滿足他們的要價。
與其等到週一美東時間晚上 6 點的交易截止時間，讓各隊互相競價、炒高報價，他們更希望直接完成交易。
當天稍早，消息開始在各支球團高層之間流傳，西雅圖水手隊正在聽取右投 George Kirby的交易報價。Kirby 的表現雖然遠不及 Skubal，但他要到 2028 年球季結束後才會成為自由球員。
相較之下，Skubal 預計在本季結束後成為自由球員。老虎隊知道，他們可以用 Skubal 剩下大約 10 場例行賽先發，以及最理想情況下季後賽再增加 5 場先發，換來一大批優秀的年輕球員。
但他們也擔心，如果拖得太久，原本最有可能的交易對象可能會轉而選擇像 Kirby 這種還有多年球團控制權的投手，進而讓 Skubal 的交易市場崩盤。
根據超過十位直接參與 Skubal 交易談判的人士透露，這些擔憂確實是有根據的。各隊都不願意把整個交易截止日前的計畫押在取得 Skubal 的可能性上，因為一旦最後沒有搶到他，到了美東時間下午 6 點 01 分，他們可能會什麼都沒拿到。
當時的談判已經讓參與其中的球隊感到不安。在棒球所有交易市場中——自由球員市場、休賽季交易、選秀、國際自由球員市場——沒有任何一個市場像交易截止日前這麼膨脹。
想要補強的球隊都知道，他們的分析模型可能會認為，光是考慮這些預期價值如此負面的交易，就已經夠蠢了。
但如果能得到這項運動最頂級的王牌投手，確實足以讓球隊突破平常的限制，但還不足以讓那些一向有紀律的球隊失去理智。
消息人士表示，不論 Skubal 對任何一支爭冠球隊或世界大賽之旅可能產生多大的影響，參與談判的球隊都不願意在自己最初提出的報價上讓步太多。
所以，當老虎隊棒球營運總裁 Scott Harris 在週六下午打電話通知各個有意爭取的球隊，告知他們底特律的時間安排時，各隊都明白接下來會發生什麼事。
Skubal 基本上會透過「盲標」的方式被交易出去。有些球隊提出多套交易方案，以免把自己限制在單一選項上；其他球隊則直接丟出自己最好的籌碼，然後祈禱結果。
最終，洛杉磯道奇隊成為勝利者，其實並不令人意外。這就是他們的做法，這就是他們。
儘管道奇隊在理性上非常不喜歡在交易截止日前進行高額交易，但他們已經成為全大聯盟最擅長這件事的球隊——從 Yu Darvish、Manny Machado，到 Max Scherzer 和 Trea Turner都是如此。
因為他們擁有非常充足的資源，即使進行一些價值為負的交易，也不會承受太嚴重的後果。
儘管密爾瓦基釀酒人和坦帕灣光芒都擁有大量小聯盟人才，亞特蘭大勇士、紐約洋基和 芝加哥小熊也都願意為了 Skubal 開出高於合理價值的代價，但沒有任何一支球隊能同時拿出像道奇一樣，既符合底特律需求的球員籌碼，又願意把這些籌碼拿出來。
所以，最後又是道奇隊。
就像 Kyle Tucker、Roki Sasaki、Tanner Scott、Yoshinobu Yamamoto 和 Shohei Ohtani的情況一樣。
又是道奇隊，再次提醒其他 29 支球隊：只要棒球界頂級的天才球員有機會被交易到手，洛杉磯就不會只是旁觀者。
大家對道奇隊的厭惡——他們延後支付的薪資、透過一份對他們極為有利的電視轉播合約來避開部分收益分成的金額，以及他們對整個棒球界所擁有的控制力——似乎每次都已經到了頂點。
但接著，他們又補進另一位明星球員，外界的抱怨聲便再次響起，儘管道奇隊所做的一切都符合勞資協議的規範。
無論這對那些認為道奇隊正在毀掉棒球的人來說是多麼沉重的一擊，也不論外界對這筆交易存在多少陰謀論，這說到底就只是一筆棒球交易，而這筆交易之所以能夠成行，其實是經過數個月的醞釀。
過去兩個月，老虎隊一直希望能避免走到週六這一步。
他們不僅在休賽季期間留住了 Skubal——當時很多人認為他們會把他交易掉，因為球團老闆 Chris Ilitch 完全沒有打算在自由球員市場上，保證給 Skubal 他預計能拿到的超過 4億美元合約——他們還簽下自由球員 Framber Valdez，並讓頂級新秀 Kevin McGonigle進入開季名單。他們以美聯中區的強力熱門身分進入球季。
然而，Skubal 在 5 月 7 日接受手術，移除手肘內的骨頭碎片。當時老虎隊正處於 6 勝 2 2 敗的低潮，這也是球團史上最慘的一個月之一。
這讓球隊陷入一個始終沒能完全彌補的落後局面。即使不算 5 月的比賽，老虎隊在美聯擁有最佳戰績，也是大聯盟最佳得失分差的球隊，依然無法改變結果。
5 月已經發生，而它注定了老虎隊的命運。
不過，老虎隊直到 7 月 29 日，也就是交易截止日前五天，才真正下定決心要交易 Skubal。那場比賽是 Skubal 的最後一次先發，老虎隊一度取得 7 比 0 領先，最後卻在 12 局遭Baltimore Orioles 逆轉輸球，讓底特律戰績跌至 51 勝 58 敗。
到了這個時候，球團高層評估了球隊不只是把 Skubal 留到球季結束，甚至圍繞他進行補強的可能性。
但老虎隊當時在排名上的位置，讓答案非常明確：不行。
尤其是交易 Skubal 和其他球員，至少能換回 1 億美元的剩餘價值，而且很可能還會更多，這種情況下就更沒有理由繼續留下他。
其實，他們幾週前就已經開始為兩種可能性做準備，包括討論球隊需求、潛在交易對象以及策略。
當真正開始討論 Skubal 的交易時，Harris 已經知道自己想要誰，而且如果對方無法接受他的要求，他也不打算浪費任何人的時間。
如果光芒想加入 Skubal 的競爭，他們就必須把球隊頭號新秀、外野手 Theo Gillen 放進交易。
Gillen 是 2024 年選秀第 18 順位選中的球員，被認為是一次非常成功的選秀選擇，而 20 24 年選秀甚至可能與 2005 年選秀競爭本世紀最佳選秀。
但坦帕灣光芒的球團運作理念仰賴自家培養、低薪合約的年輕球員，因此他們拒絕讓 Gille n 成為交易籌碼。
至於他們排名第二、第三的新秀——捕手 Caden Bodine 和 Nathan Flewelling——又都與底特律的 Dillon Dingler 同守捕手，而 Dingler 被認為是棒球界最好的捕手。
因此，光芒爭取 Skubal 的機會，在真正開始之前就已經結束了。
洋基隊也曾參與討論，不過他們不願意放棄游擊手 George Lombard Jr.，讓他們在談判中處於劣勢。
勇士隊沒有像 Gillen 或 Lombard 那樣的頂級新秀，但他們擁有足夠的年輕先發投手，至少能設法加入這場討論。
小熊隊非常需要先發投手，也很快就意識到，他們手上的籌碼並不符合底特律想要的回報。
而老虎隊要的也不一定是一名能立即進入大聯盟的先發投手，以及一名即將升上大聯盟的打者。
與外界一些說法不同，老虎隊並沒有要求特定守備位置的球員。他們鎖定的是各種不同類型的人才，而這也讓兩支球隊逐漸從競爭者中脫穎而出。
對密爾瓦基來說，能讓 Skubal 與今年表現最好的投手 Jacob Misiorowski 組成搭檔，並真正成為道奇隊的強力阻礙，讓釀酒人隊在交易截止日前充滿動力。
釀酒人隊已經建立起一支強大的球隊——連續三年拿下分區冠軍，過去八年有七次打進季後賽——即使他們的團隊薪資一直位居大聯盟最低的一群。
道奇隊目前的現金薪資總額為 3.39 億美元，還要面對接近 1.8 億美元的豪華稅帳單；釀酒人隊整支球隊的薪資總額則只有 1.44 億美元。
釀酒人隊馬上告訴底特律，他們不會把 19 歲游擊手 Jesús Made 放進交易。Made 是目前棒球界排名第一的新秀。
但密爾瓦基的小聯盟人才深度還要更深。
進入交易截止日前，ESPN 新秀分析師 Kiley McDaniel 的百大新秀榜單中，有七名釀酒人球員。兩名美聯高層也表示，他們球團內部的榜單同樣有七名。
因此，釀酒人隊列出的非賣品不只有 Made。
他們不會交易游擊手 Cooper Pratt 或外野手 Luis Lara，兩人都在大聯盟初登場前就簽下長約。
右投 Logan Henderson 也不能交易，他還有五年的球團控制權。
釀酒人的交易作戰室裡，有主張全力衝擊的派系、有主張維持現狀的堅定派，也有介於兩者之間的人。
他們不斷反覆進行著同樣痛苦的內心掙扎：
「我們必須放手一搏……但如果失敗了呢？如果就像 2008 年高調交易來左投王牌 CC Saba thia 後一樣，最後又在季後賽第一輪崩盤呢？」
當然，另一支虎視眈眈的球隊就是道奇隊。
儘管洛杉磯每年都在第一輪後段才進行選秀，他們仍然建立起一套能與密爾瓦基和坦帕灣競爭、被視為全大聯盟最頂級的小聯盟農場體系。
他們透過國際簽約做到這一點。（洛杉磯很明確表示，他們不會交易自家排名第一的新秀、21 歲的 Josue De Paula。這名出生於布魯克林的外野手，16 歲時從多明尼加共和國簽下。）
他們也透過交易做到這一點。（外野手 Mike Sirota 就是透過 Gavin Lux 的交易來到道奇體系；Lux 則是道奇隊自己選進並培養的球員。）
他們也透過選秀做到這一點。（他們去年第一輪選中的左投 Zach Root，目前已經升上 2A。）
即使老虎隊不一定需要一套各方面均衡的交易包裹，他們還是比較偏好這樣的方案。而在所有球隊之中，洛杉磯最能滿足這項需求。
道奇隊有 9 名小聯盟外野手，如果放到其他任何一支球隊，至少都有兩、三人能成為該隊最好的外野手之一。
他們有已經準備好進入大聯盟的投手——28 歲、球速很快的右投 River Ryan，以及 26 歲右投 Emmet Sheehan——還有另一名具備王牌投手上限的球員：21 歲的 Christian Zazuet a，他是道奇隊透過與洋基隊交易 Caleb Ferguson 得到的。
道奇隊也有大量內野選項，包括游擊手 Emil Morales、二壘／游擊手 Kellon Lindsey，以及三壘手 Chase Harlan。
所有這些交易方案與可能性，都讓其他球團高層幾乎一致認為，道奇隊最終會拿下 Skubal。
因為除了人才之外，道奇隊對於進行負價值交易的任何顧慮，都明顯被他們追求成為史上第一支連續三年拿下世界大賽冠軍的國聯球隊這個目標壓過去了。
對老虎隊來說，這些都不重要。
光是接受自己必須交易 Skubal 這件事就已經夠困難了。
他可以去洛杉磯，也可以去密爾瓦基——就算他最後跑去土星拿冠軍戒指，老虎隊也無所謂。
他們只想從自己 2026 年最不幸的球季中，盡可能挽回一些東西。
而當當天傍晚早些時候，各隊的報價開始陸續送進來時，他們知道自己至少能從中找到一些值得欣慰的地方。
道奇隊的交易包裹包括 Ryan、外野手 Zyhir Hope，以及高階 1A 右投 Brady Smith。
密爾瓦基的方案則由 19 歲游擊手 Luis Peña 領軍——大多數公開的新秀榜單都將他評為全大聯盟前 20 名的新秀——另外還包括兩名球員。
當天傍晚，Harris 與 Ilitch、總經理 Jeff Greenberg，以及球團其他核心高層開會，討論每一份報價的價值。
老虎隊在 Tulsa 2A 比賽開打前大約 10 分鐘達成共識。當時 Hope 正準備出賽。
和 Ryan 一樣，Hope 也是一名評價非常高的新秀，有些人認為他是全大聯盟前 50 名，也有人認為他的排名更接近前 100 名的後段。
Harris 打電話給道奇隊棒球營運總裁 Andrew Friedman，告訴他們：「我們成交了。」
但他只需要 Friedman 做一件事：
打電話把 Hope 從 Tulsa 的先發名單中撤下來。
因為他即將成為一名老虎隊球員。
當 Tulsa 宣布 Hope 臨時退出比賽後，整個棒球界立刻開始提高警覺。
也許他身體哪裡不舒服。也許只是生病了。
他確實有可能成為某筆交易的一部分，但就算如此，也不代表這筆交易就是為了換取 Skuba l。
大家其實只是在不斷猜測，而隨著 Tulsa 始終沒有對 Hope 缺席做出任何解釋，一個越來越明顯的事實也逐漸浮現：
洛杉磯道奇隊已經擁有一套人才滿載的先發輪值，而他們即將得到自 1999 年 Roger Cleme ns 之後，第一位在連續兩年拿下賽揚獎後被交易的投手。
老虎隊和道奇隊交換了球員的醫療紀錄，並讓雙方隊醫開始進行檢查。
將近三個小時的時間裡，他們仔細檢視相關文件與影像檢查結果。
Skubal 的手臂對道奇隊隊醫 Neal ElAttrache 來說並不陌生。今年 5 月，他就是使用新的 NanoScope 技術處理 Skubal 的手肘問題，讓他原本預期的復原時間縮短了一半。
Skubal 在 Sacramento 的比賽進行到一半時，離開老虎隊休息區，與隊友們告別。
在休息室裡，他收到消息：醫療檢查已經通過，他即將成為道奇隊球員。
其他參與交易的球員也在差不多同一時間收到消息。
美東時間晚上 11 點 31 分，這筆交易正式對外公布。
在洛杉磯大都會區以外，隨之而來的是一片強烈的厭惡。
為什麼又是道奇隊？為什麼總是道奇隊？
而他們真的只需要付出這些，就能得到全棒球界最好的投手嗎？
一個 28 歲的「新秀」？
Ryan 原本是內野工具人，也曾在 NCAA 第二級的 UNC-Pembroke 嘗試投球。他大學畢業後在第 11 輪被聖地牙哥教士隊選中，並在亞利桑那聯盟為教士隊擔任游擊手出賽 12 場。
隔年春訓，在他甚至還沒投出任何一顆職業球之前，聖地牙哥就把 Ryan 交易到道奇隊，換來 Matt Beaty。Beaty 在教士隊的打擊率只有 .093，最終球季 9 月就被釋出。
道奇隊將 Ryan 改造成全職投手，而在他的第一個球季，他在 47⅔ 局中送出 70 次三振。
2023 年，他升上 3A，接著在 2024 年曾短暫待在大聯盟，先發 4 場，在 20⅓ 局中繳出1.33 防禦率，之後在 2024 年 8 月接受 Tommy John 手術。
他今年回歸，雖然在對打者較有利的太平洋岸聯盟中防禦率為 4.46，但他在 36⅓ 局中送出 43 次三振、只有 8 次保送，而且僅被敲出 1 支全壘打，這些數據都顯示他的未來可能會更好。
投手本身就是一個風險很高的族群，而 Ryan 的傷病史——今年又受到腿後腱問題限制——讓他更容易成為交易對象。
儘管存在這些疑慮，而且過去十年總共只投了 329⅔ 局，老虎隊仍然非常想要 Ryan。
因為如果他能保持健康、穩定出賽，他的球路——五種球種的組合，包括接近 100 英里的速球，以及曲球、變速球、滑球和卡特球——會讓他成為像 De Paula 一樣，對方連問都不必問的非賣品。
而現在，他反而成為這筆交易的核心。
Ryan 和 deGrom 有些相似。deGrom 同樣是大學游擊手，在晚輪選秀被選中後轉為全職投手；Ryan 也同樣獲得球探與數據模型對其球種組合的極高評價。
現在唯一阻擋他成為頂級投手的，就只有健康狀況。
把 Ryan 加入一套已經擁有兩名年輕、還有多年球團控制權的先發投手——Troy Melton 和Jackson Jobe，兩人都能投出超過 100 英里的速球——再加上 Valdez，以及即將回歸的Reese Olson 或 Keider Montero，這樣的先發輪值對老虎隊來說非常有吸引力。
Hope 也是如此。他身高 5 呎 10 吋、體重 230 磅，是一名肌肉結實的球員，去年春訓曾深蹲 850 磅。未來他有機會與頂級中外野新秀 Max Clark，以及三度入選明星賽的左外野手 Riley Greene 一起組成外野陣容。
再加上內野陣容——包括新秀全明星游擊手 McGonigle、正值巔峰期的明星捕手 Dingler，以及一批已經接近大聯盟的球員（守一壘的 Josue Briceño、前首輪選秀 Bryce Rainer，以及可以守二壘或三壘的 Max Anderson）——如此一來，就更容易理解道奇隊的交易包裹為什麼如此吸引老虎隊。
多名參與談判的球團高層都承認，即使他們認為自己的交易方案更好，一個理性的人也完全可以理解為什麼底特律更偏好洛杉磯的方案。
這些球員不只是有實力。
他們符合底特律的需求。
提早交易 Skubal，也讓老虎隊可以把注意力集中在處理他的輪值搭檔 Casey Mize。
Mize 最終在週一交易截止日前的最後幾分鐘被送往聖地牙哥，換來左投 Kash Mayfield。
Mayfield 是前首輪選秀球員，他加入老虎隊後，將與 Ben Jacobs 和 Andrew Sears 一起成為球團內兩名持續受到看好的左投新秀。
老虎隊並沒有把所有即將成為自由球員的球員都交易掉。
他們選擇讓 Gleyber Torres、Jack Flaherty 和 Kenley Jansen 繼續留隊，繼續爭取美聯的外卡席次——而今年的美聯甚至出現了一支勝率不到五成的季後賽球隊。
被拒絕後，釀酒人隊轉向右投 Dustin May 來填補先發輪值的空缺。
他們從聖路易紅雀隊交易得到 May 和左投牛棚投手 JoJo Romero，送出的籌碼則是兩名快速崛起的新秀：外野手 Alexander Frias 和 Josiah Ragsdale。
雖然密爾瓦基曾考慮付出極高代價，從聖地牙哥教士隊換來全世界最好的終結者 Mason Mil ler，但最終這仍然是一筆非常符合釀酒人風格的交易截止日前操作。
密爾瓦基之後持續贏球，超越洛杉磯成為國聯第一種子。
不過真正的考驗會是在 10 月。
屆時釀酒人隊可能有機會復仇去年被道奇隊在國聯冠軍賽橫掃的恥辱，而如果要做到這一點，他們也必須跨過 Skubal 這一關。
這正是大聯盟薪資差距帶來的後果之一：
它迫使那些幾乎每件事都做對的球隊——例如釀酒人和光芒——必須一直思考一個問題：
「真的、真的全力爭冠，值得嗎？」
而答案幾乎總是否定的。
不論這樣的情況到底是對是錯，這就是釀酒人隊將帶著進入 10 月的現實。
屆時他們會派出 Misiorowski、May 和 Kyle Harrison 的投手陣容，希望這樣的配置足以擊敗那支再次掌控交易截止日的超級強權。
以下原文
THE CALLS WENT out Saturday afternoon, earlier than anticipated. The Detroit Tig ers were ready to trade the best pitcher in the world, and they needed best-and-final offers from the teams still involved in the biggest baseball sweepstakes o f the summer.
Exactly what those suitors were willing to surrender for Tarik Skubal, the 29-ye ar-old left-hander who has won back-to-back American League Cy Young Awards, Det roit didn't know. But over the previous 24 hours, the Tigers had canvassed the m arket and emerged with the sense that multiple teams were willing to meet their asking price. Rather than wait until the 6 p.m. ET deadline Monday to shop offer s and pit teams against one another and create a bidding war, they wanted to mov e.
Earlier in the day, word filtered around front offices that the Seattle Mariners were listening on right-hander George Kirby, a pitcher whose performance paled compared with Skubal's but who won't reach free agency until after the 2028 seas on. Skubal, on the other hand, is slated to hit free agency after the season. Th e Tigers knew they were primed to land a haul of talent for what amounted to 10 regular-season starts by Skubal and, best-case scenario, five more in the postse ason -- and they feared if they waited too long, their best options could opt fo r a pitcher like Kirby with multiple years of control and potentially collapse t he Skubal market.
Such fears, according to conversations with more than a dozen people directly in volved in the Skubal discussions, were well-founded. Teams were reluctant to sta ke their entire deadline on the possibility of acquiring Skubal, lest they find themselves on the losing end and reach 6:01 p.m. empty-handed.
Already the discussions were making involved teams uncomfortable. Of all the mar kets in baseball -- free agency, offseason trades, draft, international free age ncy -- none is as inflated as the trade deadline. Teams looking to add do so kno wing their analytical models will suggest they're goobers for even entertaining the prospect of deals with such negative expected value. The prospect of adding the sport's premier ace calmed such concerns enough to stretch beyond typical li mitations but not enough to put disciplined teams on tilt. Regardless of Skubal's potential impact on any pennant race or World Series run, sources said, no tea m involved in the discussions was willing to budge much from the offer it had pr esented in the cursory stages of talks.
So when Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris placed the calls Sa turday afternoon to inform the suitors of Detroit's timing, they understood what lay ahead. Skubal would essentially go via blind bidding. Some teams presented multiple concepts so as not to pigeonhole themselves. Others fired their best bo lts and said a prayer.
In the end, that the Los Angeles Dodgers emerged the winners came as little surp rise. This is what they do. This is who they are. And as much as the Dodgers int ellectually loathe the idea of big-ticket deadline dealing, they have become bas eball's foremost practitioner of the craft -- from Yu Darvish to Manny Machado t o Max Scherzer and Trea Turner -- because their abundant resources allow them to operate in a value-negative space without severe consequences. For all the mino r league talent the Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays possess, all the appeti te the Atlanta Braves and New York Yankees and Chicago Cubs had to overpay for S kubal, no team matched the Dodgers' combination of talent that appealed to Detro it and a willingness to spend it.
And so it was the Dodgers, again, as it was with Kyle Tucker and Roki Sasaki and Tanner Scott and Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani. It was the Dodgers, agai n, reminding the other 29 teams that L.A. won't be an observer when one of the g ame's great talents can be had.
The loathing of the Dodgers -- the salaries they've deferred, the money they've shielded from revenue sharing through a sweetheart TV deal, the stranglehold the y possess over the game -- always seems as if it has apexed. And then, they add another star, and the caterwauling reemerges, despite the fact that the Dodgers are doing everything within the parameters of the collective bargaining agreemen t.
No matter how crushing a blow to those who claim the Dodgers are ruining basebal l and regardless of what conspiracy theories exist about the deal, it was, very simply, a baseball trade, and how it came to be was months in the making.
FOR THE PAST two months, the Tigers had hoped to avoid Saturday. Not only had th ey held on to Skubal through the offseason -- when many thought they'd deal him because owner Chris Ilitch had zero intentions of guaranteeing him the $400 mill ion-plus he's set to command in free agency -- they added free agent Framber Val dez and elevated top prospect Kevin McGonigle onto their Opening Day roster. The y entered the season as heavy favorites in the pitiable AL Central.
Then, Skubal had surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow May 7, amid the Tig ers' 6-22 record that constituted one of the worst months in franchise history. It created a deficit from which the Tigers never fully recovered. It didn't matt er that in games outside of May, the Tigers have the AL's best record and MLB's best run differential. May happened, and it doomed them.
Still, the Tigers didn't fully commit to unloading Skubal until July 29, five da ys before the deadline, when they blew a 7-0 lead in Skubal's final start and lo st in 12 innings to the Baltimore Orioles, dropping Detroit to 51-58. At that po int, the front office weighed the team's case not to just keep Skubal through th e end of the season but add around him. The Tigers' place in the standings made that a straightforward no -- not when trading away Skubal and others would net a t least $100 million in surplus value and, likely, more.
They had started preparing weeks earlier for both scenarios, discussing prioriti es, potential suitors and strategy. When the time to discuss a Skubal deal arriv ed, Harris knew whom he wanted, and he did not intend to waste anyone's time if they were not comfortable with his demands.
For the Rays to be in the mix, they needed to include their top prospect, outfie lder Theo Gillen, a first-round steal taken with the No. 18 pick in a 2024 draft that might rival 2005 as the best this century. Tampa Bay, whose operating phil osophy requires homegrown talent on inexpensive deals, declined to make Gillen a vailable. With their second- and third-best prospects (catchers Caden Bodine and Nathan Flewelling) sharing a position with Detroit's Dillon Dingler, the best c atcher in baseball, the Rays' chances at landing Skubal ended before they really began.
The Yankees dabbled in the conversations, though their unwillingness to cede sho rtstop George Lombard Jr. handicapped them. The Braves didn't have a standout pr ospect such as Gillen or Lombard, but they possessed enough young starting pitch ing to at least wheedle their way into the conversation. The Cubs desperately ne eded starting pitching -- and recognized quickly they lacked what Detroit sought in return.
And that wasn't necessarily a major-league-ready starting pitcher and a close-to-the-big-leagues hitter. Contrary to suggestions otherwise, the Tigers were not demanding position-specific returns. They targeted talent of any manner and vari ety, and it led to two teams separating themselves from the pack.
For Milwaukee, the opportunity to pair Skubal with Jacob Misiorowski, the best p itcher in baseball this season, and offer a real hurdle for the Dodgers animated the Brewers' trade deadline. The front office had built a juggernaut -- three c onsecutive division titles, seven playoff spots in eight years -- despite rankin g among the lowest payrolls in baseball. The Dodgers carry a cash payroll of $33 9 million and face a luxury tax bill of nearly $180 million. The Brewers' entire team is making $144 million.
The Brewers immediately told Detroit they wouldn't include 19-year-old shortstop Jesús Made, the No. 1 prospect in baseball, but Milwaukee's minor league depth ran far deeper. Going into deadline season, ESPN prospect analyst Kiley McDanie l's top 100 list featured seven Brewers. Two AL executives said their internal l ists included seven, too. Accordingly, the Brewers' list of untouchables went be yond Made. They wouldn't move shortstop Cooper Pratt or outfielder Luis Lara, bo th of whom signed long-term contracts before their major league debuts. Right-ha nder Logan Henderson, with five more years of club control, was off-limits as we ll.
Inside the Brewers' war room were go-for-it advocates, stay-the-course dogmatist s and those in between, recycling the same tortured inner monologue ad infinitum
We have to go for it ... but what if it doesn't work? What if, like after the ballyhooed 2008 acquisition of left-handed ace CC Sabathia, it winds up just the same, with a first-round playoff collapse?
The other team lurking, of course, was the Dodgers. Despite picking at the back end of the first round every year, Los Angeles has still built a farm system tha t rivals Milwaukee's and Tampa Bay's as the game's finest. They did it via inter national signings. (Los Angeles was clear it would not deal its own No. 1 prospe ct, 21-year-old Josue De Paula, a Brooklyn-born outfielder signed at 16 out of t he Dominican Republic.) They did it through trades. (Outfielder Mike Sirota came to the organization in a deal for Gavin Lux, whom the Dodgers had drafted and d eveloped.) They did it in the draft. (Their first pick last year, left-hander Za ch Root, is already at Double-A.)
Even if the Tigers didn't necessarily need a balanced package, they preferred on e. And of all the teams, Los Angeles could best fulfill that desire. The Dodgers had nine minor league outfielders who would be among the two or three best at t he position in every other organization. They had major-league-ready pitchers (h ard-throwing 28-year-old right-hander River Ryan and 26-year-old right-hander Em met Sheehan) and another with ace-caliber ceiling (21-year-old Christian Zazueta, acquired in a trade with the Yankees for Caleb Ferguson). The Dodgers had plen ty of infield options: shortstop Emil Morales, middle infielder Kellon Lindsey a nd third baseman Chase Harlan.
All of the packages and possibilities led to near-unanimity among other front of fices that the Dodgers would ultimately land Skubal. Because beyond the talent, any qualms they might harbor about negative-value trades are decidedly outweighe d by their quest to become the first NL team in history to win three consecutive World Series.
To the Tigers, none of that mattered. Resigning themselves to trading Skubal was difficult enough. He could go to Los Angeles, he could go to Milwaukee -- he co uld get his ring on Saturn, for all they cared. They simply wanted to salvage a piece of their most unfortunate 2026. And when the offers started rolling in ear ly in the evening, they knew they would find some silver lining.
The Dodgers' package included Ryan, outfielder Zyhir Hope and High-A right-hande r Brady Smith. Milwaukee's, headlined by 19-year-old shortstop Luis Peña -- reg arded by most public lists as a top-20 prospect in the game -- included two othe r players, too. In the early evening, Harris met with Ilitch, general manager Je ff Greenberg and the rest of the team's brain trust to debate the merits of each offer.
The Tigers reached consensus about 10 minutes before first pitch at Double-A Tul sa, where Hope -- like Ryan, a prospect seen by some as top 50 in the game and o thers closer to the back end of top 100 lists -- was scheduled to play. Harris c alled Andrew Friedman, the Dodgers' president of baseball operations, and told h im they had a deal. He needed just one thing: for Friedman to get on the phone a nd yank Hope from Tulsa's lineup. He was about to be a Tiger.
When Tulsa announced that Hope was scratched, antennae around baseball went up. Maybe he tweaked something. Perhaps he was under the weather. He could be part o f a deal, but even that didn't mean it was for Skubal. Really, it was just dart-throwing around the increasingly obvious truth that grew ever clearer when Tulsa offered no explanation for Hope's absence: The Los Angeles Dodgers, already fea turing a rotation larded with talent, were about to land the first reigning back-to-back Cy Young winner to be traded since Roger Clemens in 1999.
The Tigers and Dodgers exchanged medical records and put their team doctors to w ork. For nearly three hours, they scrutinized documents and imaging. Skubal's ar m was already familiar to Dodgers team doctor Neal ElAttrache, who in May had us ed new NanoScope technology to clean up Skubal's elbow and halve the typical ret urn time to the field. Skubal left the Tigers' bench with teammates in the middl e of their game in Sacramento. Inside the clubhouse, he received word that the m edicals cleared and he was going to be a Dodger. The other players involved rece ived word around the same time, and at 11:31 p.m. ET, the news broke publicly.
Outside of greater Los Angeles, utter disgust followed. Why the Dodgers? Why alw ays the Dodgers? And was this really all they had to give up to land the sport's best pitcher? A 28-year-old "prospect"?
A middle infielder who dabbled in pitching at Division II UNC-Pembroke, Ryan was drafted in the 11th round after his senior year by the San Diego Padres, for wh om he played a dozen games at shortstop in the Arizona Complex League. The next spring, before he had thrown a professional pitch, San Diego traded Ryan to the Dodgers for Matt Beaty, who hit .093 for the Padres before they cut ties with hi m in September.
The Dodgers converted Ryan to a full-time pitcher, and in his first season, he s truck out 70 in 47⅔ innings. He made it to Triple-A in 2023, then spent a four-start stint with the big league club in 2024, posting a 1.33 ERA in 20⅓ innings before undergoing Tommy John surgery in August 2024. He returned this year, and though his ERA in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League is 4.46, his 43 stri keouts and eight walks with only one home run allowed in 36⅓ innings suggest be tter times are ahead.
Pitchers are an inherently risky population, and Ryan's injury history -- this y ear, hamstring issues have limited him -- made him even more accessible. Despite those concerns and only 329⅔ innings thrown over the past decade, the Tigers c oveted Ryan. Because if he were consistently healthy, his stuff -- a five-pitch mix, with a fastball that tickles 100 mph, plus a curveball, changeup, slider an d cutter -- would have put Ryan, who shares some similarities to a young Jacob d eGrom, on the don't-bother-asking list with De Paula. Instead, he is the fulcrum of this deal. Similar to deGrom, a college shortstop who converted to pitching full time after being selected with a late-round draft pick, Ryan gets off-the-c harts grades on his arsenal from scouts and models. Only health stands between h im and excellence.
Adding him to a rotation that already features a pair of young, controllable sta rters with triple-digit fastballs (Troy Melton and Jackson Jobe), plus Valdez an d the returning Reese Olson or Keider Montero, sounded awfully appealing to the Tigers. As did eventually slotting Hope -- a 5-foot-10, 230-pound bundle of musc le who last spring squatted 850 pounds -- alongside top center field prospect Ma x Clark and three-time All-Star left fielder Riley Greene.
Pair the rotation and outfield with an infield that includes a rookie All-Star s hortstop in McGonigle, an All-Star catcher in his prime in Dingler and a near-bi g-league-ready group (Josue Briceño at first base, former first-rounder Bryce R ainer in the middle infield and Max Anderson at second or third) and it becomes easier to understand the appeal of the Dodgers' package. Multiple executives inv olved in the discussions acknowledged that even if they believed theirs was supe rior, a reasonable person could understand why Detroit preferred Los Angeles'. T he players aren't just good. They fit Detroit's needs.
Moving Skubal early allowed the Tigers to focus on dealing his rotation mate Cas ey Mize, who went to San Diego in a deal for left-hander Kash Mayfield in the fi nal minutes Monday. A former first-rounder, Mayfield joins Ben Jacobs and Andrew Sears, two up-arrow lefty pitching prospects in the Tigers' organization. The T igers did not trade all their impending free agents, content to allow Gleyber To rres, Jack Flaherty and Kenley Jansen to continue competing for a wild-card slot in an American League that features a playoff team with a record below .500.
The Brewers, spurned, pivoted to right-hander Dustin May to fill their rotation void, acquiring him and left-handed reliever JoJo Romero from the St. Louis Card inals for a pair of breakout prospects: outfielders Alexander Frias and Josiah R agsdale. While Milwaukee toyed with the idea of paying an obscene price to get t he best closer in the world, Mason Miller, from San Diego, it wound up a very Br ewers-like deadline. Milwaukee has continued winning since, overtaking Los Angel es for the top seed in the NL. The litmus test, though, will be October, when th e Brewers could be in position to avenge last year's embarrassing NLCS sweep by the Dodgers -- and will need to get through Skubal to do so.
This, as much as anything, is the consequence of the game's payroll gap: It forc es teams that do almost everything right, such as the Brewers and Rays, to spend their existence considering whether really, really trying to win is worth it. T he answer, almost always, is no. And regardless of whether that's right or wrong, it's the existence the Brewers will carry into October, when they'll march out Misiorowski, May and Kyle Harrison and hope it's enough to topple a juggernaut that once again owned the trade deadline.
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#5 Freddie Freeman
2024 World Series MVP
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ProducerChen 08/08 00:02